Best Trade Deadline Moves

Nathan Aronoff
Aug 7, 2024
5 min read

We’re now over a week into August. That means the trade deadline is in the rearview mirror and we’ve begun the all-out race to the finish line. At last week’s deadline, some teams spent resources on pieces that will impact said race. Here are the three trades that, in my opinion, will have the largest impacts on the upcoming race:

3. Yankees - RHP Mark Leiter Jr.:

After getting off to a great start, the New York Yankees struggled in the latter half of June and most of July. A large part of their struggles was due to their bullpen falling apart. Three of the arms the Yankees had relied on out of the pen, Ian Hamilton, Nick Burdi, and Ron Marinaccio, all went on the Injured List. To add insult to injury, their closer, Clay Holmes, lost his touch. After not allowing a single earned run in his first 19 appearances, an ERA of 0, over his following 28 appearances Holmes allowed 14 earned runs, an ERA of 4.5.

With Juan Soto entering the free-agent market after this season, the Yankees are under immense pressure to capitalize on the final year of his contract and win a championship. Hence, it was clear as day that they would acquire a reliever whom they could trust in high-leverage situations. The top reliever on the market was Miami Marlins’ lefty, Tanner Scott (1.18 ERA). However, the San Diego Padres outbid the Yankees. The Yankees were forced to reroute and acquire Mark Leiter Jr. (4.21 ERA) from the Cubs instead. At first, I didn’t expect Leiter to make a significant impact. That was until a friend pointed out that while his stats aren’t impressive, his metrics on baseball savant sure are. Sure enough, Leiter has arrived in the Bronx and performed at a high level in high-leverage situations. In 3 out of Leiter’s 4 appearances as a Yankee, Leiter was thrown into sticky situations with the game on the line and got the job done. New York has won all 4 games in which Leiter has pitched. Mark Leiter Jr. is exactly what the Yankees’ bullpen needed and he will be huge in October. The best part of it all is that San Diego gave up 4 prospects for Scott, 3 of which are now top-12 prospects in the Marlins organization. Meanwhile, Cashman and the Yankees gave up 2 prospects for Leiter, and neither has cracked the Cubs’ top-20 prospect list. Since the trades, Scott’s ERA is 3.86 and Leiter’s is 2.25. This was a great job by Brian Cashman and the Yankees’ front office, finding better value while giving up fewer assets.

2. Phillies: LF/RF Austin Hays:

The Philadelphia Phillies were the best team in baseball in the first three months of the season. However, between June and July, the Phillies went exactly 25W-25L. Some injuries did play a part in struggles, but it was more than that. Their lineup had several holes: They lacked corner outfielders who were both above-average in the field and at the plate, they lacked power against left-handed pitching, and they lacked disciplined hitters.

Approaching the deadline, rumors swirled linking the Phillies to the Chicago White Sox’ superstar outfielder, Luis Robert. Since Robert is under team control until 2028, trading for him would require a king’s ransom. The Phillies did a great job identifying that Luis Robert is only a slightly above-average fielder, he isn’t at all a disciplined hitter, and that most of his home runs have come against right-handed pitchers. Hence, while he is a great player, he’s not a good fit for their team and wouldn’t be worth the price. Instead, the Phillies acquired Austin Hays from the Baltimore Orioles. Hays wasn’t expected to be on the trade market. Nonetheless, he’s a solid fit for the Phillies and didn’t cost much. From the corner outfield positions, Hays can gun out base runners with his 86th-percentile arm strength. He’s productive at the plate with a career .747 OPS, 35 points above the league average. Most importantly, he has a .465 career slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers, 65 points above the league average. The best part is that the Phillies got him for Seranthony Domínguez and Cristian Pache. Dominguez no longer fit the team, and Pache was replaced by Hays. This was a great job by Sam Fuld and the Phillies, adding a great fit to their outfield without giving up any crucial assets.

1. Mariners - LF Randy Arozarena:

Entering the season, many analysts saw the Mariners as one of the top teams in the AL, due to their incredible rotation. However, I was concerned about their lineup. They relied too much on Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh to carry the load. Lineup protection cannot be overlooked! Not only do bad hitters create easy outs in their at-bats, but they also allow pitchers not to challenge the surrounding hitters. Sure enough, Julio Rodriguez struggled due to not seeing many pitches over the plate. He became frustrated and began to expand the zone, putting himself in the 6th percentile in chase rate. His OPS dropped to a career-low .687 before he was placed on the 10-day IL last month. The Mariners have the best pitching staff in the American League and arguably the best in the MLB. They have 3 starters with ERAs of 3.05 or lower, Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby, and their bullpen ERA is also good, at 3.85. They have the pitching to be a legit World Series if their batting lineup is only average.

At the trade deadline, the Mariners addressed their gapping hole by acquiring Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner. In addition to these players being better hitters than the hitters the Mariners previously had in their lineup, these acquisitions were amazing for two reasons. The first is that these bats have pop. Julio Rodriguez is a great baserunner who can score from first on an extra-base hit. However, the batters behind him weren’t producing extra-base hits. In accordance, pitchers weren’t throwing the ball over the plate against Rodriguez. If he expands the zone and swings, he’ll get himself out. If not, he’ll walk and the batters behind him will get out with him standing on first base. This is what caused Rodriguez to struggle so far this season. However, Arozarena and Turner together have 62 extra-base hits this season. That will force opposing pitchers to throw the ball over the plate against Rodriguez. The legit hitting opportunities will result in him returning to being the incredible hitter he’s been the past two years. The second reason is that now is the perfect time to acquire Randy Arozarena. After posting an OPS of .770 or higher for three years in a row, Arozarena has had a down year. In 100 games with the Rays this year, Arozarena’s OPS was a career-low .712. In accordance, his trade value was at its lowest point since his breakout in 2020. Since Randy is still in his late 20s, there’s no reason to believe that he’s struggling due to age, and every reason to believe that it’s only a matter of time until he returns to form. Sure enough, in the 9 games he’s played since being traded to the Mariners, Arozarena has posted a .831 OPS.

Between the additions of Arozarena and Turner, and Julio Rodriguez hopefully returning to form, the Mariners’ lineup should be average or better. If so, their pitching staff can become a juggernaut in the playoffs. While their record might not suggest it, the Seattle Mariners are the last team you want to face in a playoff series. This was an outstanding job by Justin Hollander and Seattle’s front office at strategically addressing their needs and properly constructing their roster.

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