How Good Will the 2024 Texans be?

Between the 2022 and the 2023 seasons, the Houston Texans executed the ultimate one-season rebuild. Houston went from 3W-13L-1T to 10W-7L in only a single year. This offseason, yet again, the Texans have been making great moves. Between these offseason additions, and their young players having another year of experience under their belts, the Texans are expected to be incredible in 2024. Let’s go through their roster and see if the expectations are justified. 

THE YOUNGSTERS:

Between the 2022 and 2023 drafts, the Houston Texans picked up 7 high-end players. On the defensive side, they added linebackers Christian Harris and Will Anderson alongside defensive backs Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley. On offense, they added running back Dameon Pierce and the dynamic duo of CJ Stroud and Tank Dell. Nico Collins of the 2021 draft class should be mentioned as well. These 8 young players provide the Houston Texans with a very solid and low-paid core for the next few years. 

The arguably biggest game-changer didn’t come via the draft. This game-changer is the Texans’ 39-year-old head coach, DeMeco Ryans. At age 36, Ryans got his first defensive coordinator gig with the San Francisco 49ers. In two years with the 49ers, Ryans’ defense excelled. The 49ers placed 9th in the NFL in points allowed in 2021. In his second year in the Bay Area, his defense allowed fewer points than any team in the NFL in 2022. After leading the best defense in the NFL, Ryans got his first opportunity as a head coach with the struggling Texans franchise. Over the previous 3 years, the Texans hadn’t won more than 4 games in a season, and their 2022 defense ranked 27th in points scored. Ryans came in and instantly turned things around. Ryans emphasized bringing in players who in addition to playing at a high level, would also benefit the players around them. The two best examples were trading up to the 3rd pick to get Will Anderson, and drafting Tank Dell after CJ Stroud said he liked the way Dell played. Ryans instantly saw results. In 2023, Houston’s defense ranked 11th in points allowed. Under Ryans, Houston allowed 353 points all season, 67 points fewer than they allowed the previous year. That’s almost a 4-point improvement per game (3.95)! 7 of Houston’s games in 2023 were decided by 4 points or fewer. The DeMeco Ryans effect is legit. Between Ryans, Stroud, and the Texans’ young core, this team is a playoff team for the foreseeable future.

THE OFFSEASON ADDITIONS:

After seeing an incredible improvement from 2022 to 2023, the Texans front office wasn’t satisfied. They went out and acquired 3 big-time veterans this offseason: Danielle Hunter, Joe Mixon, and Stefon Diggs. 

At age 29, Danielle Hunter put up a career year in 2023. Hunter’s 16.5 sacks and 23 tackles for loss were both career-bests. Since the Vikings had to clear space to give Justin Jefferson a monster contract, they were somewhat forced to let Hunter walk. The Houston Texans seized the opportunity and handed Hunter a 2-year 49-million-dollar contract. Pairing Hunter with Will Anderson, the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year, should be an unstoppable combination on the defensive line. Last season, the Texans’ defense was good but a bit sloppy and missed a lot of tackles. The addition of the veteran star in Hunter should propel them into the top 10 and make them a legitimate top-tier defense. 

After signing Zack Moss, the Bengals planned on releasing Joe Mixon. That was until the Texans stepped in at the last minute and offered Cincinnati a 7th-round pick. A 7th-round pick is more than the Bengals would get if they released Mixon, and just like that Joe Mixon became a Houston Texan. While Mixon is on the older side for a running back, he’s still running the ball at a near-elite level. He’s eclipsed 1,200 scrimmage yards in each of his last 3 seasons, despite missing a few games. While the Texans’ offense was very good in 2023, it was evident that they were missing a cowbell running back. They ranked 20th in rushing attempts and 22nd in rushing yards last season. Adding the back who was 5th in attempts and 8th in yards should complete their offense. I think Mixon will be great in Houston and make the players around him even better!

After years of speculation around the Love-Hate relationship between Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen, the Bills finally moved on from one of them. The Buffalo Bills were moving around pieces in an attempt to clear up some cap space. With a strong receiver draft on the horizon, they realized it was time for the inevitable trade of Stefon Diggs. In exchange for a 2025 2nd-round pick, the Bills sent Diggs and two late-round picks to the Houston Texans. The majority of the NFL community is very excited about what Stefon Diggs can do with CJ Stround and the Texans’ young dynamic offense. Nevertheless, I’m very skeptical. Often, when wide receivers move into a new system late in their career, they tend to fade. There are too many examples to go through each one, but the first two that came to my head were Kenny Golladay and Julio Jones. In Golladay’s last year in Detroit, he put up 68 yards and 0.4 touchdowns per game. In his first year with the Giants, he put up 37 yards and 0 touchdowns per game. In Jones’ last year in Atlanta, he put up 86 yards and 0.33 touchdowns per game. In his first year with the Titans, he put up 43 yards and 0.1 touchdowns per game. I believe Stefon Diggs will fall victim to this tendency for two reasons. The first is that he already began to fade late in the year in 2023. Diggs eclipsed 100 yards 5 times in his first 6 games in 2023 and then failed to do it a single time between weeks 7 and 17. In his last 7 games of the season, Diggs only eclipsed 50 yards twice. In addition, the Texans already have plenty of guys to give the ball to. Nico Collins and Tank Dell will both get the ball more than Diggs. They’re both younger, have better chemistry with Stroud, and are arguably as good. Mixon will get the ball a lot because Houston must run to keep the offense balanced. That leaves Diggs competing with Dameon Pierce and Dalton Schultz for the 4th most touches. I advise staying away from Diggs in fantasy football. 

CAN THEY BEAT KC?

Around the playoffs and Super Bowl, the phrase “It Factor” will often be thrown in the air. The “It Factor” is the quarterbacks ability to get the win. When push comes to shove, when it’s all on the line, can the quarterback find a way to get it done? On paper, Peyton Manning’s stats are arguably better than Tom Brady’s. However, Brady’s the undisputed GOAT because he had the “It Factor” and Manning didn’t. In accordance, Brady won 7 Super Bowls and Manning only won 2. 

Over the past 6 seasons, the Kansas City Chiefs have dominated the AFC. That’s a product of their quarterback, Patrick Mahomes having the “It Factor”. The only times he’s lost in the playoffs was against other quarterbacks with the “It Factor”, Tom Brady and Joe Burrow. Every team in the AFC is currently asking themselves if their quarterback has enough “It Factor” to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs. In CJ Stroud’s rookie season, he showed signs that he might have it. In the latter half of the season, Stroud and the Texans won 6 of their 7 games that were decided by a single score. Compared to what other rookie quarterbacks have done over the past couple of years, CJ Stroud’s rookie success is out of this world. It’s only been one season, but I believe that CJ Stroud should be on our “It Factor” watch list. It’s only June and it;s impossible to tell so early, but don’t be surprised if the Texans knock out the Chiefs and represent the AFC in Super Bowl LIX. 

RELEVANT FOOTBALL REFERENCE PAGES:

2023 Texans

CJ Stroud

DeMeco Ryans