Playoff Race PWR Rankings

10. ATLANTA BRAVES: (-2)

At 76W-63L, the Atlanta Braves currently possess the third and final wildcard spot in the National League. As I’ve mentioned in previous power rankings, the 2024 Atlanta Braves team will be remembered as one of the biggest “what ifs” in recent MLB history. After their dominant 2023 season ended in a disappointing fashion, the Braves patched up their pitching staff in an attempt to make sure 2024 ends differently. However, everything went to waste when both Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuna went down with season-ending injuries. Atlanta’s roster was so good that they’re still a legitimate playoff team even without their two best players. Nonetheless, without Strider and Acuna, it’s hard to imagine the Braves will get past the Divisional Series.

9. HOUSTON ASTROS: (+1)

At 75W-64L, the Houston Astros have a comfortable lead in the American League West. The Astros have a reputation for getting hot when it matters most and going on deep playoff runs regardless of their regular season performance. However, I don’t think this postseason will be the same. They’re tied for the 11th-best record in the MLB, even after they turn it up a notch in the playoffs, they still won’t be a top-5 team. In addition, their rookie manager, Joe Espada, had a hard time finding his feet as a first-time manager. I won’t be surprised if he has similar struggles in his first trip to the playoffs. Furthermore, the majority of their starting rotation are right-handed pitchers. Both the Yankees and Orioles stand in the Astros’ path to a pennant and they both have team OPSs of above 760. against right-handed pitchers. While the Astros are far better than their record suggests, I don’t believe they will go on a deep run in October.

8. SAN DIEGO PADRES: (-1)

At 80W-61L, the San Diego Padres are currently the top wildcard team in the National League. Over the past few months, San Diego has been the most entertaining team in baseball. In close games, the Padres seem to always find a way to win. They’re 8W-1L in games that go into extra innings and 20W-15L in 1-run games. They’re batting lineup is deep and consists of 7 batters who are well above league average. However, they will have a hard time knocking off the top teams in the playoffs because they don’t have any real aces in their rotation. Having a guy like Gerrit Cole or Zack Wheeler who you can trust to get your team an automatic win in a crucial game is critical in the playoffs. The Padres’ best starter is Dylan Cease who has a 3.62 ERA and a 12W-10L record. When the Padres face a must-win scenario in the playoffs and the opposing pitcher is Wheeler, Cole, Yamamoto, or any other true ace, I can’t bet on them winning.

7. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS: (Previously Unranked)

At 79W-61L, the Arizona Diamondbacks are only 0.5 games out of the top wildcard spot in the National League. After the Diamondbacks’ deep playoff run in 2023 and their successful offseason, I expected Arizona to be great immediately in 2024. However, they struggled through July 9th, winning only 45 of their first 92 games. Nonetheless, Jordan Montgomery and Corbin Carroll have found their stride. Since July 10th, Arizona is 44W-14L and they’re looking scary heading into October. The front half of a team’s rotation is often what makes or breaks their playoff run. In accordance, Arizona’s three-headed monster of Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Jordan Montgomery should terrify the National League. While they don’t have a top-5 roster in the MLB, the Diamondbacks are hot at the right time and are built for the playoffs. Don’t be shocked if we see the Diamondbacks reach the World Series again this year. 

6. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES: (-1)

At 83W-56L, the Philadelphia Phillies stand in first place in the National League East. I’m not a believer in the Phillies’ offense. Around late May, it became noticeable that the flaws of a lot of the Phillies’ hitters were consistent with each other. Therefore, if a pitching staff game plans around those flaws and properly attacks them, they won’t be the same team. Hence, it comes as no surprise that since May 24th the Phillies are 46W-42L, an average team. Over the past couple of years, the Phillies’ rotation has been great in the playoffs and it should allow them to win one or two series. Nevertheless, I doubt their offense will be able to keep up in a 7-game series against a team that has both an elite lineup and an elite pitching staff.

5. CLEVELAND GUARDIANS: (-1)

At 80W-60L, the Cleveland Guardians stand in first place in the American League Central and are tied for the 2nd-best record in the American League. Led by dominant closer Emmanuel Clase, the Guardians’ bullpen ERA is 2.80, tied for the best in the MLB. The front half of their lineup is incredible and will appear in opposing pitchers’ nightmares. They have 4 hitters with OPSs above .780 and everyone else is below .690. However, they lack talent at the bottom of their lineup and in the starting rotation. If the big bats at the front of the lineup don’t do enough for their bullpen to have a lead, they’re very vulnerable. This was displayed in their recent series against the New York Yankees. In 3 games, the Yankees walked Cleveland’s 1-4 hitters 12 times and allowed their bullpen to get a lead only once. As a result, the Yankees won the series and outscored Cleveland 19-10. Cleveland’s a great baseball team, but they’re not built to win a series against good teams.

4. NEW YORK YANKEES: (-1)

At 80W-60L, the New York Yankees are in the top wildcard spot in the American League, 0.5 games out of the lead in the American League East, and are tied for the 2nd-best record in the American League. After starting the season red-hot, the Yankees suffered a miserable slump. Nonetheless, they eventually snapped out of it in late July. However, they’re not quite the team they were before the slump. They seem to be an average team that goes on hot streaks of 2 or 3 games once a week. In theory, since teams only have to win 2 out of 3, 3 out of 5, and 4 out of 7 to win a playoff series, what the Yankees are doing should work in October. On the other hand, it feels like Boone and the Yankees are doing everything possible to not field their best possible team. In what might be their final year with Soto in their lineup, the Yankees haven’t called up Jasson Dominguez, are using Clay Holmes as their closer, and are staring multiple players who are slugging under .350. It doesn’t seem like they want to win, they have no fire in their eyes and no killer instinct. Even if Judge, Soto, and Cole play to the best of their abilities in the playoffs, when push comes to shove, in October a team that wants it more will come and take it from the Yankees. In my opinion, if New York fails to bring back Juan Soto, they should clear the house in the front office. 

3. MILWAUKEE BREWERS: (+3)

At 81W-59L, the Milwaukee Brewers have a comfortable lead in the National League Central. The Brewers’ largest strengths are their bullpen and the top of their lineup. Milwaukee’s bullpen has a collective 2.80 ERA, the best in the National League, and their lineup has 4 hitters with an OPS above .800. Milwaukee is strong in the very areas in which the previous three teams were weak. They have a diverse lineup, some hitters hit for power, others for contact, and some just find ways to get on base, They have a deep lineup with 6 hitters posting an OPS above league average. They have a killer instinct and have a positive record in 1-run games. The only reason I don’t believe they’ll win the World Series is their lack of an ace. While they do have Colin Rea who has a 12W-4L record, I cannot see them keeping up with the numerous aces in the Dodgers’ rotation.  

2. BALTIMORE ORIOLES: (-1)

At 81W-60L, the Baltimore Orioles are barely hanging onto first place in the American League East and the best record in the American League. Baltimore isn’t having as good of a season as I imagined they would. On paper, the Orioles have 8 hitters posting OPSs well above league average, 3 starters with ace-level stuff, and an above-average bullpen. Nonetheless, between injuries and slumps, it hasn’t all come together for the Orioles. That is alarming for both the Orioles and their opponents. On one hand, each time it’s something else and they can never quite figure it out. Leading us to fear that they’re going to waste this championship opportunity. However, even without figuring it all out, the Orioles have the best record in the American League. Hence, when they do figure it all out they’re going to be even more dominant. In conclusion, if Brandon Hyde and his staff can find a way to make all this talent work together, they’ll probably win the World Series. If Hyde can’t do it, the door will remain jarred open for the Yankees and Guardians to steal the American League pennant.

1. LOS ANGELES DODGERS: (+1)

At 84W-56L, the Los Angeles Dodgers have the best record in the MLB. After spending an insane amount of money in this past offseason, the Dodgers were expected to be the best team in baseball this year. However, until recently, they were in a similar situation to the Orioles. They were playing good baseball but it wasn’t all coming together and there was a feeling that they could be so much more than what they were. That was until 4 weeks ago. Ever since August 9th, the Dodgers have been hot, winning 18 of 25 games and claiming the top record in the MLB. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and his 2.92 ERA are expected to return from the IL and join the Dodgers’ rotation this week, making them even scarier. While Milwaukee and Arizona will give them good fights, I expect the Dodgers to live up to the hype and win the National League pennant. On paper, the Orioles have a more talented roster than the Dodgers. However, I believe the Dodgers will find a way to get it done and they’re my World Series favorites.