Rodgers Isn't the Solution for the Jets

Last night, the Buffalo Bills defeated the New York Jets 23-20, handing New York their 3rd consecutive loss. The Jets have been struggling for years and brought in Aaron Rodgers with hopes of him turning around their franchise. However, since acquiring the future Hall-of-Fame quarterback, the Jets are 9W-14L. In New York’s previous 23 games, the Jets went 8W-15L. It hasn’t worked and nothing has changed. Aaron Rodgers has failed to magically turn around and revive one of the worst franchises in sports. Let’s look at the two sides' backgrounds and analyze why it hasn’t worked and whether they can still turn it around or not.

The New York Jets’ Background:

The Jets haven’t been a successful franchise in quite a while. While their struggles can be traced back as far as Joe Namath’s broken wrist in 1970 or Mark Sanchez’s shoulder injury in the 2010 AFC Championship game, I chose to start with the 2021 NFL draft. Despite having a rookie, defensive-minded head coach in Robert Saleh, and their offensive line finishing the 2020 season 29th on PFF’s rankings, the Jets chose to use the 2nd pick of the NFL draft on a “project quarterback”, Zach Wilson. “Project quarterbacks” are always very affected by the environment they’re drafted into. “Project quarterbacks” drafted into proper environments, such as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jordan Love, have been very successful. Unfortunately, as previously mentioned, the environment Zach Wilson was drafted into was a dumpster fire. To make matters worse, the Jets chose to start Zach Wilson immediately. Right out of the gate, Wilson was set up to fail.

To nobody’s surprise, Zach Wilson’s first two seasons as the Jets’ signal-caller went terribly wrong. Between 2021 and 2022, in the 22 games started by Wilson, the Jets went 8W-14L and scored 17.2 points per game. Wilson completed a mere 55% of his passes for only 4,022 yards, 15 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, and a passer rating of 70.9. To put things simply, he wasn’t good enough. Meanwhile, after starting his head coaching career 11W-23L, Robert Saleh deserved to be fired. However, he was able to stick around due to the excuse of not having a good quarterback to work with. Since their defense only allowed 18.6 points per game in 2022, 4th-best in the NFL, the Jets believed that if they could figure out the offense they could become one of the top teams in the league. Their offensive line had stepped it up and finished the 2021 season 13th on PFF’s rankings. In addition, rookie weapons, receiver Garrett Wilson, and running back Breece Hall, emerged as high-end skill players. Hence, the key to figuring out the offense was finding functional quarterback play. In accordance, in the 2022-2023 offseason, the New York Jets acquired Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers and extended his contract through 2025. Rodgers was expected to be the perfect fit for the quarterback-lacking Jets roster, and the speculation began.

Aaron Rodgers’ Background:

In 2021, on his way to leading the Green Bay Packers to a 13W-4L season, Aaron Rodgers put up a historic campaign. At age 39, said campaign, was enough to win Rodgers his fourth and second consecutive NFL MVP award. Over the following offseason, the Packers traded away Rodgers’ favorite target, Davante Adams, and naturally, Rodgers got a year older. The results showed, and Rodgers took a step back the following season. In 2022, the Packers went 8W-9L and missed the playoffs, as Rodgers regressed by 4.3% in completion percentage, 40 yards per game, 0.78 touchdowns per game, and threw 0.45 more interceptions per game. In total, his passer rating dropped from 111.9 to 91.1. While his supporting cast wasn’t as good in 2022, it’s hard not to attribute Rodgers’ regression to his old age. 

At that point, the Packers already had young quarterback, Jordan Love sitting on the bench for 3 years. After Rodgers’ took a step in the wrong direction in 2022, Green Bay decided that it was time to move on to Jordan Love. They got the most they could get by trading Rodgers to the New York Jets that offseason. Rodgers was expected to be the perfect fit for the quarterback-lacking Jets roster, and the speculation began.

Aaron Rodgers’ Tenure in New York:

It’s not rare to see veteran quarterbacks go to different organizations late in their careers. Veteran quarterbacks tend to be great leaders and have a positive impact on the culture of the team. When the situation has been right, we’ve seen these quarterbacks be extremely successful with their new teams. Peyton Manning won a Super Bowl and had two of his best seasons after joining the Broncos at age 36. Tom Brady won a Super Bowl and set a new career-high in passing yards after signing with the Buccaneers at age 43. Nonetheless, when the situation wasn’t right, we’ve seen some of these veteran quarterbacks ruin their legacies by struggling with their new teams. Matt Ryan had the worst season of his career after being traded to the Colts at age 37. Russell Wilson became a laughing stock after being traded to the Broncos at age 34. While most were excited about Rodgers’ potential with the Jets, some of us were asking ourselves whether he would be a Manning/Brady or a Ryan/Wilson. 

After starting his coaching career 11W-23L, Saleh finally had his quarterback and there was no reason for him to not have success with Rodgers. Unfortunately, four plays into the Rodgers-Saleh era in New York, Rodgers ruptured his left Achilles tendon and was done for the entire season. Just like that, the Jets were back to square one with Zach Wilson under center. Throughout the 2023 season, we heard a lot about how good the Jets will be when Rodgers gets back. The Jets’ defense ranking top-5 in terms of yards allowed for a second consecutive season added to the speculation. However, for a few reasons, I was skeptical. We already saw Rodgers regress in his age 39 season in 2022, will he regress further in his age 41? In addition, 20%-30% of Achilles tendon ruptures never recover enough to return to sports, with the numbers getting worse with age. Rodgers is 41 years old, will he recover well and be as good as he was before the injury? Furthermore, Saleh has a career record of 18W-33L and Hackett’s offenses have been terrible the past two years, is the situation right for a veteran quarterback? Finally, a veteran quarterback can change a team’s culture by about 30%-50%, but one man can’t change a multi-billion dollar organization by himself. Is the Jets’ culture broken beyond Rodgers’ repair?

Sure enough, the Jets’ looked lackluster in week 1. They dropped a Monday night football matchup 32-19 to the 49ers. In week 2, courtesy of silly turnovers by Will Levis, the Jets picked up an ugly 24-17 win over the Tennessee Titans. In week 3, Aaron Rodgers and the Jets put on a dominant performance and blew out the Patriots 24-3. The Jets seemed to be rolling, and Aaron Rodgers seemed to be the solution. However, things took a turn for the worse when Rodgers and the Jets faced the Broncos and their highly-ranked defense in week 4. Rodgers was thrown around like a ragdoll and the Jets’ offense stalled. In the 4th quarter of New York’s 10-9 loss, Rodgers was seen reaching for his leg, limping, and wincing in pain. After the game, Rodgers said he was dealing with some swelling in his knee, unaffiliated to his previous Achilles injury. He added that he had “stuff on both legs”. The following week, Rodgers was sacked 4 times and threw 3 interceptions during the Jets’ 23-17 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. After the game, Rodgers discussed a knee injury but was cleared for last night’s matchup against their division rivals, the Buffalo Bills. As I mentioned above, after starting his head coaching career 11W-23L, Robert Saleh deserved to be fired. Due to the 2W-3L start, the Jets understood that Saleh wasn’t the right coach, regardless of his quarterback, and parted ways with him. Nevertheless, the Jets couldn’t get the job done last night, even without Saleh. They missed multiple field goals and Rodgers threw a backbreaking interception in the 4th quarter of a one-score loss. 

In my opinion, it has become clear that Rodgers isn’t enough. During the Jets’ 3-game losing streak, Rodgers had thrown 4 interceptions, was sacked 12 times, and his offense has scored 15.3 points per game. Rodgers will be turning 41 in a few months. He’s old and banged up. He’s no longer progressing and is running out of time before his body gives in on him (if it hasn’t already). The Jets are playing under an interim head coach and have a shaky offensive line, this isn’t a recipe for a veteran quarterback to find success. As hard as it is to say it, Aaron Rodgers isn’t going to fix the Jets and they would be best served rebuilding.