The Risk of Signing a Running Back

Nathan Aronoff
Mar 12, 2024
6 min read

With the NFL offseason beginning this week, I’ve been researching the available free agents. One thing consistently stood out to me when looking through different lists of free-agent rankings. Former Titans’ running back, Derrick Henry, who was one of the top running backs in the league a couple of years ago, was usually ranked between 25th and 35th. Henry is one of only eight players to eclipse 2,000 rushing yards in a season, won the 2020 Offensive Player of the Year, and has been to four Pro Bowls, including the most recent one. Why isn’t Derrick Henry viewed as one of the most valuable players on the market?

The answer is that he’s viewed as one of the most valuable running backs on the market. The keywords are “running backs”. Running backs aren’t valued as much in the modern NFL, especially above age 30, because running backs occasionally fall off out of nowhere. No team wants to commit to a big contract when there’s a chance the player will wake up one morning unable to perform. To back this up, here are the stories of three running backs who ran the league one day and disappeared the next:

Devonta Freeman 2014-2021

Florida State’s running back, Devonta Freeman was drafted by the Atlanta Falcons in the 4th round of the 2014 NFL draft. In his rookie year, Freeman got under 100 touches and didn’t accomplish much. However, he showed the Falcons’ coaching staff just enough for them to make him the featured back the next year. Freeman put the league on notice with a breakout 2015 season. He ran 1,056 yards and 11 touchdowns and added 578 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air. The big season earned Devonta Freeman his first Pro Bowl selection and second-team All-Pro honors. He proved his productive season wasn’t a by putting up almost identical stats the following year. Freeman had yet another good year in 2017 but was held back by a concussion. While the concussion prevented Freeman from reaching his third consecutive Pro Bowl, he did finish the year with a very respectable 1,182 scrimmage yards and 8 touchdowns. However, the injuries continued, and in 2018 Freeman suffered a groin injury and only played 2 games. He entered the 2019 season determined to get back on track, and the Falcons were very excited to get back their Pro Bowl-caliber running back. Nevertheless, that was far from what happened. Excluding one good week 6 performance against the Arizona Cardinals, Freeman was awful. In 14 games, Freeman only scored on the ground twice. He averaged 46.9 yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry, terrible compared to the 66.6 and 4.4 he averaged in 2015-2017. Due to his lack of production and large contract, following the 2019 season, the Atlanta Falcons cut Devonta Freeman.

The next season, as a result of Saquon Barkley tearing his ACL, the New York Giants signed Devonta Freeman. In New York, Freeman was a shell of his former self. After only racking up 230 scrimmage yards and 1 touchdown in 5 games, things took a turn for the worst and Freeman hurt his ankle. Between the ankle injury and testing positive for COVID-19, Freeman never got back on the field in the 2020 season. After the season, in January 2021, the New York Giants released Devonta Freeman. He spent time on the Buffalo Bills and New Orleans Saints practice squads before signing with the Baltimore Ravens in September. Following injuries to J. K. Dobbins, Justice Hill, and Gus Edwards the Ravens were desperate for running back help. Freeman wasn’t bad for the Ravens and did average 4.3 yards per attempt and scored 5 touchdowns. However, he didn’t do enough to avoid being benched when the other running backs returned from their injuries. Despite having his best season in years, Devonta Freeman didn’t play another NFL snap after the 2021 season. Just like that, because of injuries and a lack of luck, in a matter of only a few years, Devonta Freeman went from being one of the best players in the league to being abandoned and unwanted.

Eddie Lacy 2013-2017

In four years at Alabama, Eddie Lacy made a name for himself as one of the nation’s top running backs. The Green Bay Packers selected Lacy late in the second round of the 2013 NFL draft with high expectations. Lacy came to play immediately and took the league by storm. Lacy’s 1,435 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns were enough to win him the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, along with both Pro Bowl and All-Pro honors. Lacy’s 2014 season was even better, as he put up 131 scrimmage yards and 2 touchdowns more than in his rookie campaign. His 2015 season was held back by minor injuries to his ankle and groin. Even though he only completely missed one game, it was evident that he was not the same. Lacy finished 2015 with a career-low 646 scrimmage yards and a career-low 5 touchdowns. In addition to his injuries, it was noticeable that Lacy had gained weight. Being a physical style running back, Lacy’s weight was once an advantage, but it began to slow him down too much. In 2017, Eddie Lacy played 5 games for the Packers. In those games, his yardage was looking good again, but he failed to find the endzone. However, he suffered an ankle injury and missed the majority of the season. Between the injuries, the gained weight, and the lack of touchdowns, the Packers decided not to renew Lacy’s contract after 2016. On March 14, 2017, Lacy signed a one-year, $5.5 million contract with the Seattle Seahawks. Lacy only played 9 games with the Seahawks and was underwhelming. After he only put up 2.6 yards per carry in 2017, the Seattle Seahawks elected to not renew Eddie Lacy’s contract. Eddie Lacy didn’t play another NFL snap after the 2017 season. Just like that, because of injuries and gained weight, in a matter of only a few years, Eddie Lacy went from being one of the best and most promising players in the league to being abandoned and unwanted.

Todd Gurley 2015-2020

Entering the 2015 NFL draft, Todd Gurley was a top-tier running back out of Georgia. Even though running backs usually slide in the draft, the St. Louis Rams scooped up Gurley with the 10th overall pick. Gurley immediately proved the risk worth it by putting together an incredible rookie campaign. Gurley’s 1,294 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns were enough to earn him the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, a Pro Bowl selection, and a second-team All-Pro honor. Due to a poor surrounding cast, his second year was a bit disappointing. However, he bounced back in fashion in 2017 by putting up over two thousand scrimmage yards and 19 touchdowns. After winning the Offensive Player of the Year award in 2017, Gurley somehow was even more impressive in 2018. Despite missing two games, Todd Gurley put up 1,831 scrimmage yards and 21 touchdowns, solidifying himself as the best running back in the league.

After the Rams lost in the Super Bowl, Gurley entered the 2019 season determined to run repeat the success and seal the deal this time. However, his lingering knee issues slowed him down. Gurley was still good in 2019, but he failed to reach a thousand rushing yards and scored 7 touchdowns less than he did the previous season. Since Gurley was being paid to perform the way he did in 2017 and 2018, but wasn’t quite doing so, On March 19, 2020, the Los Angeles Rams decided to cut Todd Gurley. That April, Gurley signed a one-year, $5.5 million contract with the Atlanta Falcons. Gurley was solid with the Falcons, but nowhere near what he once was. After racking up 842 scrimmage yards and 9 touchdowns in 15 games, Gurley hadn’t shown the Falcons enough for them to extend his contract. Todd Gurley didn’t play in the 2021 season, and in an interview in October 2022, he confirmed that he was done playing professional football. Gurley’s sudden decline is blamed on knee osteoarthritis caused by tearing his ACL, but it is hard to know for sure. Just like that, because of injuries and a lack of luck, in a matter of only a few years, Todd Gurley went from being one of the best players in the league to being abandoned and unwanted.

Over the past couple of days, a handful of running backs, such as Tony Pollard and Saquon Barkley have signed big contracts. Nevertheless, these contracts are considered big contracts for running backs but would be laughable for impactful players at other positions. The highest-paid receiver in the NFL is Tyreek Hill at 30 million dollars a year, while the highest-paid running back in the league is Christian McCaffrey at only 16 million dollars a year. Based on what happened with Freeman, Lacy, and Gurley, it is safe to say that the salary gap is more than justified.

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