Top Free Agents' Top Landing Spots

Now that the MLB offseason has officially begun, it’s time to look at the top free agents’ potential landing spots. Here’s a list of 5 of the most valuable free agents. With the help of 3 factors, I determined each free agent’s top landing spot. The factors are as follows: 1. Based on how well the player fits into the team’s roster I determined whether the team would be interested in the player. 2. Based on comparing the team’s net worth and payroll, I determined approximately how much money the team would be willing to spend this offseason. 3. Based on the team’s tendencies in recent offseasons, I determined how aggressive the team will be in the upcoming free-agent market. 

Anthony Santander (30/RF):

Anthony Santander is a switch-hitting corner outfielder, who is entering his ninth season in the MLB. He has consistent power but is inconsistent in his ability to make contact. His capabilities in the field are underwhelming, but in 2024, his 44 home runs and 102 RBIs easily made up for his negative 3 Fielding Run Value.

1. Baltimore Orioles:

Last offseason, a group led by hedge funder David Rubenstein, bought the Orioles. Despite Rubenstein’s absurd net worth of nearly 4 billion dollars, the Orioles are currently set to have one of the lowest payrolls in the MLB next season. I expect that to change drastically. Rubenstein won’t be afraid to invest a large amount of money in his roster, and I imagine he’ll start by locking down his current stars, such as Santander.

2. New York Yankees:

The New York Yankees have cleared space in preparation for a bidding war over Juan Soto. If they don’t win the war, they will no doubt do whatever it takes to land Santander. The impact a left-handed power hitter has on Aaron Judge when hitting near him in the lineup is incredibly valuable. In 2024, Santander had a .822 OPS against righties and hit 61 extra-base hits. That will encourage opponents to put lefties on the mound and discourage opponents from walking Judge, which will allow Judge to be at his best. Juan Soto played that role perfectly in 2024. It was no coincidence that Judge put up a career-high in OPS, OBP, RBIs, and slugging. The Yankees will most definitely have either Soto or Santander hit in front of Judge.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers:

Last offseason, the Dodgers showed us that they’re willing to spend an unlimited amount of money on free agents. The Dodgers are yet to re-sign Teoascar Hernandez and will be looking to replace his production in the clean-up spot and left field. Santander has played 90 games in left field and his switch-hitting ability will allow the Dodgers to have 3 power-hitting lefties at the top of their lineup without making it vulnerable against left-handed pitchers. Facing Ohtani, Freeman, and Santander in a single inning is a right-handed pitcher’s worst nightmare.

Pete Alonso (29/1B):

Pete Alonso is a power-hitting, right-handed first baseman, who is entering his 8th year in the big leagues. Even though he’s known for his slugging, Alonso gets on base at an above-average rate as well. The only reason Alonso isn’t viewed as a top-tier free agent is the fact that he’s a bit of a liability in the field.

1. New York Mets:

The Mets broke out in fashion in the latter half of the 2024 season. They won 26 of their final 40 games and two playoff series. The terrifying part is that they have 4 top-100 prospects who will be big league-ready in the immediate future. Adding 4 great players to a team that came within 2 games of reaching the World Series is the recipe for a dynasty. Mets’ owner, Steve Cohen has over 21 billion dollars to his name and doesn’t mind giving any player their desired contract. I imagine he’ll start by locking up his star first baseman. 

2. Houston Astros:

After Jose Abreu failed to produce in Houston, the Astros haven’t gotten much production from the first base position. Jon Singleton got most of the action at first base for the Astros in 2024 and was underwhelming. Since Houston’s future Hall-of-Famers, Jose Altuve (34 years old) and Justin Verlander (41 years old) are nearing the ends of their careers, I expect Houston to go all-in to make a run at one last championship before the end of their dynasty. Since the Astros’ two best hitters in 2024, Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez are both left-handed, it would be logical for Houston to bring in the right-handed Pete Alonso and stick him between the lefties. 

3. New York Yankees:

The New York Yankees recently declined Anthony Rizzo’s 1-year 17-million-dollar club option. I assume that they parted ways with their first baseman to allow themselves to offer 17 million dollars more to Juan Soto. However, if the Yankees fail to bring back Soto, they will need a first baseman and will have plenty of money to offer. They will also be quite panicked and desperately searching for ways to replace Soto’s production. 

Blake Snell (31/LHP):

Blake Snell is a dynamic left-handed starting pitcher, who is entering his 10th year in the pros. Snell is the ultimate “hit or miss” pitcher. Snell has electric stuff but struggles to stay healthy. He’s made 30 or more starts in only 2 of his 9 major league seasons. However, in the two years in which he stayed healthy, Snell had the lowest ERA and hits-per-9 in his league and won the Cy Young Award. 

1. New York Mets:

As I mentioned regarding Alonso, the Mets are on the brink of a dynasty and have plenty of money to spend. A true ace starting pitcher is incredibly valuable in the playoffs. In 2024, the Mets had a very solid rotation but lacked a true ace who could go out and win a big game. When healthy, Blake Snell is more than a true ace. He’s won 2 Cy Young awards and has plenty of postseason experience. Snell finished his 2024 season on an incredible run, allowing only 11 runs in his final 80 innings, a 1.23 ERA. Had Snell been on the Mets last year, the NLCS might have ended differently.

2. San Francisco Giants:

After struggling with injuries in the first half of his first season in San Francisco, Snell found his rhythm in the latter half of the season. Snell tends to look uncomfortable and struggle after switching teams, as the 2 times he’s relocated, his ERA rose significantly in the following year. Snell is finally comfortable with the Giants, I imagine he wants to stay. In addition, the Giants can afford to give him the contract he deserves. Despite being one of the most highly-valued MLB franchises, the Giants’ payroll is outside the top 10. San Francisco can afford to add one or two large contracts to their books. 

3. Los Angeles Dodgers:

As I mentioned regarding Santander, last year, the Dodgers showed that they’re are threat to sign every free agent in the market. After winning the World Series, the Dodgers will be looking to start a dynasty. Dynasties require playoff success, and playoff success requires great starting pitching. The Dodgers are yet to re-sign Walker Buehler and already have an injury-prone starting rotation. Hence, this offseason, Los Angeles will try to get their hands on another dominant pitcher who they can rely on in the postseason. Since Snell is a 2 time Cy Young award winner and has had postseason success, he’s a great candidate. 

Corbin Burnes (30/RHP):

Corbin Burnes is a top-tier right-handed starting pitcher, who is entering his 8th year in the MLB. Burnes is by far the best pitcher in the free-agent market. He’s put up sub-3 ERAs in 3 of the past 4 seasons and has struck out 200 hitters in the 3 of the past 4 years, as well. Burnes is an incredible big-game pitcher, with a 2.33 ERA in 9 playoff appearances, and can be the final piece to a championship-winning team.

1. Baltimore Orioles:

In each of the past two years, the Baltimore Orioles had promising regular seasons before losing in their first playoff series. One of the reasons for their playoff struggles, is sub-par starting pitching. Starting pitching is crucial in the postseason, and outside of Corbin Burnes’ 8-inning gem in the 2024 Wildcard Series, the Orioles’ starters have allowed 14 runs over 12 innings in their last two playoff appearances. As previously mentioned, David Rubenstein can allow himself to spend on his team, and he’ll do everything possible to ensure that Corbin Burnes stays in Baltimore.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers:

As I mentioned regarding Snell, starting pitching is the Dodgers’ key to a dynasty. In accordance, the Dodgers would love to add Corbin Burnes. In fact, they’d like to add Burnes more than they’d like to add Snell. That is because their starting rotation is extremely injury prone, they had 5 starters on the shelf during their recent World Series run. Since Snell is also very injury-prone, he wouldn’t solve that issue. However, Burnes has started been on the mound consistently and has started 28 games or more in each of the past 4 seasons. Corbin Burnes is likely the Dodgers’ most sought after free agent in this year’s market.

3. New York Mets:

As I mentioned regarding Alonso and Snell, the Mets are on the brink of a dynasty and have plenty of money to spend. In 2024, the Mets had a very solid rotation but lacked a true ace who could go out and win a big game. Corbin Burnes and his 2.33 postseason ERA is the definition of a true ace who could go out and win a big game. Much like the Dodgers, Burnes can be the finals piece to the Mets’ dynasty. However, I believe that the Mets will prioritize Soto and Alonso over starting pitching. If they sign both, I doub they’ll spend the money on Alonso, Soto, and the top pitcher in the market. Hence, Burnes is more likely to end up in Los Angeles than in the Big Apple.

Juan Soto (26/RF):

Juan Soto is a left-handed corner outfielder and a top-3 hitter in baseball, who is entering his 8th season in the majors. Soto has a rare combination of incredible power and incredible discipline. In 2024, Soto was the only player in the MLB to be both top-5 in average exit velocity and bottom-7 in chase rate. Soto debuted at the young age of 19, which has allowed him to become a veteran with playoff and World Series experience with a decade remaining in his prime. He is far and away the most valuable free agent in this year’s market.

1. New York Yankees:

In 2023, the New York Yankees had a .683 collective OPS against right-handed pitchers, scored 4.15 runs per game, won 82 games, and missed the playoffs. They then added Juan Soto and his 1.000 career OPS against righties to their lineup. As a result, in 2024, the Yankees had a league-best .777 OPS against righties, scored 5.03 runs per game, won 94 games, and made the World Series for the first time since 2009. They’re two different teams with and without Juan Soto in the lineup and they know it.

Soto is more valuable to the Yankees than to other teams because of the impact he has on the way opponents pitch to Aaron Judge. Soto’s left-handed power and contact threat encourage opponents to put lefties in the game and discourage opponents from walking Judge. It was no coincidence that in Soto’s first year in the Bronx, Judge put up a career-high in OPS, OBP, RBIs, and slugging. After not signing Snell or Yamamoto last year, and parting ways with Rizzo last week, the Yankees’ payroll is down to 186 million dollars. Since the Yankees don’t want to go into the final luxury tax tier, they’ll go up to 290 million dollars. That leaves them 104 million dollars (per year) to spend on Soto. They won’t need to go up to 104, but the point is that they have the ability to spend more than other teams believe his value is. Since no other team has a right-handed power threat as great as Judge, Soto is more valuable to the Yankees than to any other team. In addition, there have been reports that in contrast to what we originally assumed, Soto may take a “hometown discount” to stay with the Yankees. Andy Martino of SNY said: “If the Yankees are close to the highest offer, they’ll get him”. 

2 & 3. New York Mets & Los Angeles Dodgers:

As I’ve mentioned over and over again throughout this article, both the Dodgers and the Mets are on the brink of dynasties and are both willing to spend an unlimited amount of money. Since Soto is by far the best player in the free agent market this offseason, I expect both teams to do as much as they can do try and land Soto. However, neither of them has the motivation or favor that the Yankees have.